A History of Stability and Change in Lebanon by Bayeh Joseph

Author:Bayeh, Joseph
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781786722324
Publisher: I.B. Tauris

CHAPTER 4

UNIPOLARITY AND THE ‘SECOND REPUBLIC’

The end of the Cold War and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union marked a major change in the structure of the international system. A new international system commenced, with an, arguably, unipolar structure, which had a new set of rules and a general pattern of interaction defined by the dominance of the only remaining superpower – the US – on the international level. The change in the systemic pattern of interaction with the end of Cold War polarisation over the Middle East, amongst other regions, had an indirect mediated effect on Lebanon, terminating the 1975–90 War through a regional intermediary, Syria, which imposed a political settlement that led to yet another change to Lebanon's political structure – this time leading towards a ‘Second Republic’ system. The new system in Lebanon was, however, saddled with a total loss of political autonomy and a de facto Syrian mandate for almost 15 years. After the terrorist attacks against the US on 11 September 2001, however, new dynamics on the international system ensued, and a contingent systemic pattern of interaction was reflected in a ‘war on terrorism’, which modified the US policy towards the Middle East. Syria, amongst others, was targeted as part of this new US policy which had a direct effect on Lebanon's structure through evicting Syria's forces from the country and restoring its political autonomy in 2005.

The ‘New World Order’ and the Syrian Mandate

The end of the Cold War and the bipolar system also brought to an end the last vestiges of superpower polarisation over the Middle East and enabled a successful settlement (the Ta'if Accord in 1989) in Lebanon, which was sponsored by the US and its regional ally, Saudi Arabia. The US, however, assigned to a regional intermediary – Syria – the enforcement of the settlement – a process which led to a significant loss of Lebanon's political autonomy in favour of substantial Syrian hegemony. Therefore, the end of systemic polarisation (Cold War) and the emergence of a unipolar ‘new world order’ had the indirect mediated systemic effect of a de facto Syrian mandate in Lebanon between 1990 and 2005.

The termination of Soviet–US confrontation on the international level also brought to an end the US policy of containment of the USSR, and thus concluded an era of polarisation between the two superpowers over almost all international issues – a pattern of interaction that had characterised the Cold War for almost 40 years. Thus – for the Middle East in general, and Lebanon in particular – the end of polarisation over the region terminated the need for the US to balance another superpower in the region (the Soviet Union) and eventually brought an end to local wars related to the Cold War era – including, naturally enough, an end to Lebanon's conflict.

The collapse of the Soviet Union also marked a major change in the structure of the international system, with the disappearance of a major systemic actor. Consequently, a new world order materialised

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